Senti chi (ne) parla: Twitter, bail-in e banche in crisi (Look who’s talking: Twitter, bail-in and banking crisis)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7433/s107.2018.11Keywords:
bail-in; banking crisis; media coverage; media sentiment; text analysis; Social network AnalysisAbstract
Purpose of the paper: This article investigates some issues related to the circulation of news in terms of bail-in and recent bank events.
Methodology: The methodology used involves the combination of Social network Analysis (SNA) and Text analysis. Specifically, the SNA has been applied to highlight the central actors’ role in spreading news on the Twitter platform from November 2015 to March 2016. The Text analysis was used to analyze the semantic aspect of news.
Results: Central media propagation is represented by traditional media through the use of their official accounts. Very bad content and rather harsh tones are found for news on the cases of intermediaries in difficulty, including the Banca Etruria story, while a substantial neutrality is recorded in the case of the bail-in issue.
Research limitations: The study may include further social networks to extend the analysis and see if the sentiment undergoes changes.
Practical implications: The article implications are tied to a sound and disciplined communication policy, which could produce two types of benefits. The former is the use of unconventional channels like Twitter, which could allow savers to make more informed decisions. The latter is an adequate perception of transparency, which could increase confidence in the banking system and reduce the risk of financial instability.
Originality of the paper: Original is the combination of Social network Analysis and Text analysis that allow to extend existing literature on bail-in.
References
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HUANG J., THORNTON K. (2010), “Conversational tagging in twitter”, Proceedings of the 21st ACM Conference.
HUBERMAN B.A., ROMERO D.M., WU F. (2009), “Social networks that matter: Twitter under the micro-scope”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1313405, vol. 14, n. 1, pp. 8.
KARABULUT Y. (2011), “Can Facebook Predict Stock Market Activity?”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1919008.
LAZZERETTI L., CAPONE F. (2016), “R&D networks in High Technology applied to Cultural Goods in Tuscany. A Social network Analysis”, Sinergie Italian Journal of Management, vol. 34, n. 99, pp. 75-99.
LOUGHRAN T., MCDONALD B. (2011), “When is a Liability not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10-Ks”, Journal of Finance, vol. 66, n. 1, pp. 35-65.
MAURI A.G. (2011), “Le prestazioni dell’impresa come comunicazione “di fatto” e il ruolo del passaparola”, Sinergie Italian Journal of Management, n. 59, pp. 147-159.
MILLER G. (2006), “The press as a Watchdog for accounting fraud”, Journal of accounting research, vol. 44, n. 5, pp.1001-1033.
MISLOVE A., JØRGENSEN S.L., AHN Y.Y., ONNELA J.P., ROSENQUIST J.N. (2011), “Understanding the Demographics of Twitter Users”, Proceedings of the Fifth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, pp. 554-557, AAAI Press.
MITCHELL J.C. (1969), “The concept and use of social networks”, in Mitchell J.C. (a cura di), Social networks in urban situations, Manchester University Press., Manchester
MONEY R.B., GILLY M.C., GRAHAM J.L. (1998), “Explorations of National Culture and Word-of-Mouth”, Journal of Marketing, Referral Behavior in the Purchase of Industrial Services in the United States and Japan, vol. 62, n. 4, pp. 76-87.
NIEHAUS G., ZHANG D. (2010), “The impact of sell-side analyst research coverage on an affiliated broker’s market share of trading volume”, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 34, n.10, pp. 776-787.
O’REILLY T. (2007), “What is web 2.0? Design patterns and business models for the next generation of software”, International Journal of Digital Economics, n. 65, pp. 17-37.
OCCHINO F. (2016), “Debt-overhang banking crises: detecting and preventing systemic risk”, Journal of Financial Stability, Forthcoming in.
OSGOOD C.E., SUCI G.J., TANNENBAUM P.H. (1957), The Measurement of Meaning, University of Illinois Press, Urbana.
PAK A., PAROUBEK P. (2010), “Twitter as a Corpus for Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining”, Proceedings of the Seventh conference on International Language Resources and Evaluation (LREC’10), European Language Resources Association (ELRA).
REEVE J. (1992), Understanding motivation and emotion, TX: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Fort Worth.
SCIARELLI S. (2011), “Il governo dell’impresa in una società complessa: la ricerca di un equilibrio tra economia ed etica”, Sinergie, n. 61-62, pp. 97-115.
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SHOEMAKER P., REESE S. (1996), Mediating the message: Theories of influence on mass media content, Longman, New York.
SIGNORI P., CONFENTE I. (2014), “Consumer’s e-signals Prism analysis: impact and implications for corporate communication strategy”, Sinergie, n. 93, pp. 175-191.
STONE P.J., DUNPHY D.C., SMITH M.S., OGILVIE D.M. (1966), “The General Inquirer: a computer approach to content analysis”, MIT studies in comparative politics, Cambridge, MIT Press.
TETLOCK P.C. (2007), “Giving content to investor sentiment: the role of media in the stock market”, Journal of Finance, vol. 62, n. 3, pp. 1139-1168.
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WASSERMAN S., FAUST K. (1994), Social network Analysis, Cambridge University Press.
WYSOCKI P. (1998), “Cheap talk on the web: The determinants of postings on stock message boards”, Working Paper, n. 98025, University of Michigan Business School, Ann Arbor, MI.
BABECKÝ J., HAVRÁNEK T., MATEˇJU J., RUSNÁK M., SˇMÍDKOVÁ K., VASˇÍCˇEK B. (2014), “Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: stylized facts and early warning indicators”, Journal of Financial Stability, vol. 15, n. C, pp. 1-17.
BANSAL H.S., VOYER P.A. (2000), “Word-of-mouth processes within a services purchase decision context”, Journal of Service Research, vol. 3, n. 2, pp. 166-177.
BARBER B.M., ODEAN T. (2008), “All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors”, Review of Financial Studies, vol. 21, n. 2, pp. 785-817.
BAUMEISTER R.F., BRATSLAVSKY E., FINKENAUER C., VOHS K.D. (2001), “Bad is stronger than good”, Review of General Psychology, vol. 5, n. 4, pp. 323-370.
BAUSCH S., HAN L. (2006), “Social networking sites grow 47 percent, year over year, reaching 45 percent of web users”. Available from: http://www.nielsennetratings.com/pr/pr_060511.pdf.
BOLLEN J., MAO H., ZENG X. (2011), “Twitter mood predicts the stock market”, Journal of Computational Science, vol. 2, n. 1, pp. 1-8.
BOLLEN J., PEPE A., MAO H. (2011), “Modeling public mood and emotion: Twitter sentiment and socio-economic phenomena”, Proceedings of the Fifth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM 2011), pp 450-453, Menlo Park, CA: AAAI Press.
BRIEF A.P., MOTOWIDLO S.J. (1986), “Prosocial organizational behaviors”, Academy of Management Review, vol. 11, n. 4, pp. 710-725.
BROWN J.J., REINGEN P.H. (1987), “Social Ties and Word-of-Mouth Referral Behavior”, Journal of Consumer Research, vol. 14, n. 3, pp. 350-62.
CARRETTA A., FARINA V., FIORDELISI F., MARTELLI D., SCHWIZER P. (2011), “The impact of corporate governance press news on stock market returns”, European Financial Management, vol. 17, n. 1, pp. 100-119.
CARRETTA A., FARINA V., GRAZIANO E.A., REALE M. (2013a), “Does Investor Attention Influence Stock Market Activity? The Case of Spin-Off Deals”, in Mattarocci G., Carretta A., (a cura di), Asset Pricing, Real Estate and Public Finance over the Crisis, Palgrave Macmillan, Londra.
CARRETTA A., FARINA V., NAKO A. (2013b), “Web 2.0, mass media e circolazione delle notizie finanziarie: il caso dello spread btp-bund”, in Bracchi G., Masciandaro D., (a cura di), La banca commerciale territoriale nella crisi dei mercati, XVII Rapporto sul Sistema Finanziario Italiano, Fondazione Rosselli, Edibank - Bancaria Editrice, Milano.
CHA M., HADDADI H., BENEVENUTO F., GUMMADI K.P. (2010), “Measuring user influence in twitter: The million follower fallacy”, Proceedings of the Fourth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM 2010), pp. 10-17, Menlo Park, CA: AAAI Press.
COVAL J.D., SHUMWAY T. (2001), “Is sound just noise?”, Journal of Finance, vol. 56, n. 5, pp. 1887-1910.
COX D.F. (1963), “The Audiences as Communicators”, in Greyser S.A. (a cura di), Proceedings - American Marketing Association, pp. 58-72.
DAMTON R. (1975), “Writing news and Telling Stories”, Daedalus, vol. 104, n. 2, pp. 175-193.
DEEPHOUSE D.L. (2000), “Media reputation as a strategic resource: an integration of mass communication and resource-based theories”, Journal of Management, vol. 26, n. 6, pp. 1091-1112.
DEGENNE A., FORSÉ M. (2007), “Introducing Social networks”, ISM, Sage Publications.
DELL’ACQUA A., PERRINI F., CASELLI S. (2010). “Conference calls and stock price volatility in the post - reg FD era”, European Financial Management, vol. 16, n. 2, pp. 256-270.
DEMIRGUC-KUNT A., DETRAGIACHE E. (1998), “The Determinants of Banking Crises. Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries”, The World Bank Paper, 1828, pp. 1-46.
DOUKAS J.A., KIM C.F., PANTZALIS C. (2005). “Two faces of analyst coverage”, Financial Management, vol. 34, n. 2, pp. 99-125.
FARINA V., FATTOBENE L., GRAZIANO E.A. (2017), “Watchdog or Petdog: Do the media play a role in shaping banks risk culture?”, in Carretta A., Fiordelisi F. (a cura di), Risk culture in Banking: Theory, measurement and management, Palgrave Macmillan, Londra.
GALTUNG J., RUGE M.H. (1965), “The structure of foreign news”, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 2, n. 1, pp. 64-91.
GIBSON R., ZILLMANN D. (1994), “Exaggerated versus representative exemplification in news re- ports: Perception of issues and personal consequences”, Communication Research, vol. 21, pp. 603-624.
GRAZIANO E.A. (2017), Cosa legge chi investe? News, media e mercati finanziari, Eif - e.book, Padova.
GRAZIANO E.A., VICENTINI F. (2017), “Football cultural events and stock market returns: the case of FIFA World Cup”, International Journal of Environmental Policy and Decision Making, vol. 2, n. 2, pp. 167-178.
HONOHAN P., LAEVEN L. (2005), Systemic Financial Distress: Containment and Resolution, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
HOUSTON J.F., LIN C., MA Y. (2011), “Media ownership, concentration and corruption in bank lending”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 100, n. 2, pp. 326-350.
HUANG J., THORNTON K. (2010), “Conversational tagging in twitter”, Proceedings of the 21st ACM Conference.
HUBERMAN B.A., ROMERO D.M., WU F. (2009), “Social networks that matter: Twitter under the micro-scope”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1313405, vol. 14, n. 1, pp. 8.
KARABULUT Y. (2011), “Can Facebook Predict Stock Market Activity?”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1919008.
LAZZERETTI L., CAPONE F. (2016), “R&D networks in High Technology applied to Cultural Goods in Tuscany. A Social network Analysis”, Sinergie Italian Journal of Management, vol. 34, n. 99, pp. 75-99.
LOUGHRAN T., MCDONALD B. (2011), “When is a Liability not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10-Ks”, Journal of Finance, vol. 66, n. 1, pp. 35-65.
MAURI A.G. (2011), “Le prestazioni dell’impresa come comunicazione “di fatto” e il ruolo del passaparola”, Sinergie Italian Journal of Management, n. 59, pp. 147-159.
MILLER G. (2006), “The press as a Watchdog for accounting fraud”, Journal of accounting research, vol. 44, n. 5, pp.1001-1033.
MISLOVE A., JØRGENSEN S.L., AHN Y.Y., ONNELA J.P., ROSENQUIST J.N. (2011), “Understanding the Demographics of Twitter Users”, Proceedings of the Fifth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, pp. 554-557, AAAI Press.
MITCHELL J.C. (1969), “The concept and use of social networks”, in Mitchell J.C. (a cura di), Social networks in urban situations, Manchester University Press., Manchester
MONEY R.B., GILLY M.C., GRAHAM J.L. (1998), “Explorations of National Culture and Word-of-Mouth”, Journal of Marketing, Referral Behavior in the Purchase of Industrial Services in the United States and Japan, vol. 62, n. 4, pp. 76-87.
NIEHAUS G., ZHANG D. (2010), “The impact of sell-side analyst research coverage on an affiliated broker’s market share of trading volume”, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 34, n.10, pp. 776-787.
O’REILLY T. (2007), “What is web 2.0? Design patterns and business models for the next generation of software”, International Journal of Digital Economics, n. 65, pp. 17-37.
OCCHINO F. (2016), “Debt-overhang banking crises: detecting and preventing systemic risk”, Journal of Financial Stability, Forthcoming in.
OSGOOD C.E., SUCI G.J., TANNENBAUM P.H. (1957), The Measurement of Meaning, University of Illinois Press, Urbana.
PAK A., PAROUBEK P. (2010), “Twitter as a Corpus for Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining”, Proceedings of the Seventh conference on International Language Resources and Evaluation (LREC’10), European Language Resources Association (ELRA).
REEVE J. (1992), Understanding motivation and emotion, TX: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Fort Worth.
SCIARELLI S. (2011), “Il governo dell’impresa in una società complessa: la ricerca di un equilibrio tra economia ed etica”, Sinergie, n. 61-62, pp. 97-115.
SCOTT M. (1999), WordSmith tools, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
SHILLER R.J. (2005), Irrational Exuberance, Second Edition, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
SHOEMAKER P., REESE S. (1996), Mediating the message: Theories of influence on mass media content, Longman, New York.
SIGNORI P., CONFENTE I. (2014), “Consumer’s e-signals Prism analysis: impact and implications for corporate communication strategy”, Sinergie, n. 93, pp. 175-191.
STONE P.J., DUNPHY D.C., SMITH M.S., OGILVIE D.M. (1966), “The General Inquirer: a computer approach to content analysis”, MIT studies in comparative politics, Cambridge, MIT Press.
TETLOCK P.C. (2007), “Giving content to investor sentiment: the role of media in the stock market”, Journal of Finance, vol. 62, n. 3, pp. 1139-1168.
TETLOCK P.C., SAAR-TSECHANSKY M., MACKASSY S. (2008), “More than words: quantifying language to measure firms’ fundamentals”, Journal of Finance, vol. 63, n. 3, pp. 1437-1467.
WASSERMAN S., FAUST K. (1994), Social network Analysis, Cambridge University Press.
WYSOCKI P. (1998), “Cheap talk on the web: The determinants of postings on stock message boards”, Working Paper, n. 98025, University of Michigan Business School, Ann Arbor, MI.
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2018-12-28
