Sbiancare il cigno nero? Strategie e competenze manageriali per riconoscere il nuovo (Whiten the black swan? Managerial strategies and skills to recognize the new)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7433/s99.2016.18Keywords:
unexpected events, black swan, emergency management, preparednessAbstract
Purpose of the paper: The literature that analyzes how organizations deals with black swans tends to emphasize the importance of learning from experience, extending over time the number of cases that the organization is able to manage. This paper proposes a radically different approach suggesting that organizations can face unexpected events as they occur, instead of “whitening” the black swans after they have occurred. To this end, organizations develop a peculiar system of capabilities and set of strategies.
Methodology: This study reviews the managerial literature on black swans, along with the theoretical approach to organizations of the Carnegie School. The proposed theoretical framework is stimulated by a critical discussion of the literature on emergency management.
Findings: The formulation of two strategies and a system of competencies that allow to recognize and manage unexpected events without “transforming” them into risky events.
Research limitations: The original conceptualization of the management of black swans framed by this study does not distinguish the specificities of different contexts that may affect the decision-making process.
Research and managerial implications: The paper identifies a system of organizational capabilities that allow the firm to detect and manage black swan events while they happen.
Originality/value of the paper: This work develops a conceptualization of the management of black swan that is consistent with the ontological nature of these phenomena.
References
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COWAN D.A. (1986), “Developing a process model of problem recognition”, The Academy of Management Review, vol. 11, n. 4, pp. 763-776.
CYERT R.M., MARCH J.G. (1963), A behavioral theory of the firm, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
DILLON R.L., TINSLEY C.H. (2008), “How near-misses influence decision making under risk: A missed opportunity for learning”, Management Science, vol. 54, n. 8, pp. 1425-1440.
DUTTON J., DUKERICH J. (1991), “Keeping an eye on the mirror: Image and identity in organizational adaptation”, Academy of Management Journal, vol. 34, n. 3, pp. 517-554.
EINHORN H.J., HOGARTH R.M. (1981). “Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice”, Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 19, n. 1, pp. 1-31.
FARAJ S., XIAO Y. (2006), “Coordination in fast-response organizations”, Management Science, vol. 52, n. 8, pp. 1155-1169.
FISCHHOFF B. (1975), “Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty”, Journal of Experimental Psychology, Human Perception and Performance, vol. 1, n. 3, pp. 288-299.
FRIGOTTO M.L., COLLER G., COLLINI P. (2013), “The relationship between strategy and management control systems as an emerging dynamic process”, Journal of Management and Governance, vol. 17, n. 3, pp. 631-656.
FRIGOTTO M.L., NARDUZZO A. (2010), “9/11: organizations coping with the unexpected”, paper presentato all’ EGOS Colloquium, Bergen, Norway.
FRIGOTTO M.L., ZAMARIAN M. (2010), “Staying aloft: resiliency and cost effectiveness in facing complex environments”, paper presentato al 10° Workshop di Organizzazione Aziendale - Bologna, 16-18 giugno 2010.
FRIGOTTO M.L., ZAMARIAN M. (2015) “Mindful by routine: evidence from the Italian Air Force Tornado crews flying practices”, Journal of Management and Organization, DOI:10.1017/jmo.2014.85.
GAVETTI G., LEVINTHAL D., OCASIO W. (2007), “Perspective-Neo-Carnegie: The Carnegie School’s Past, Present, and Reconstructing for the Future”, Organization Science, vol. 18, n. 3, pp. 523-536.
GAVETTI G.M., HENDERSON R., GIORGI S. (2005), Kodak and The Digital Revolution (A), Harvard Business School Case 705-448, disponibile su www.hbs.edu.
HAECKEL S.H. (2004), “Peripheral vision: Sensing and acting on weak signals”, Long Range Planning, vol. 37, n. 2, pp. 181-189.
HARRISON J.R., MARCH J.G. (1984), “Decision making and post decision surprises”, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 29, n. 1, pp. 26-42.
HAUNSCHILD P.R., SULLIVAN B.N. (2002), “Learning from Complexity: Effects of Prior Accidents and Incidents on Airlines’ Learning”, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 47, n. 4, pp. 609-646.
HERMANN C.F. (1972), “Threat, time and surprise”, in Hermann C.F. (a cura di), International Crises, Free Press, New York, pp. 187-211.
HUTCHINS E. (1995), Cognition in the Wild, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
JANIS I.L. (1982), Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, Houghton Mifflin, Boston, MA.
KENDRA J., WACHTENDORF T. (2006), “Community Innovation and Disasters”, in Rodríguez H., Quarantelli E.L., Dynes R.R. (a cura di), Handbook of Disaster Research, Springer New York, pp. 316-334.
KIESLER A., SPROULL L. (1982), “Managerial response to changing environments: perspectives on problem sensing from social cognition”, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 27, n. 4, pp. 548-570.
KLEIN G., PLISKE R.M., CRANDALL B., WOODS D. (2005), “Problem detection”, Cognition, Technology, and Work, vol. 7, n. 4, pp. 14-28.
LAGADEC P. (2006), “Crisis Management in the Twenty-First Century - “Unthinkable” Events in “Unthinkable” Contexts”, in Rodriguez H., Quarantelli E.L., Dynes R.R. (a cura di), Handbook of Disaster Research, Springer New York, pp. 489-507.
LAMPEL J.Z., SHAPIRA Z. (2001), “Judgmental errors, interactive norms, and the difficulty of detecting strategic surprises”, Organization Science, vol. 12, n. 5, pp. 599-611.
LANZARA G.F. (1983), “Ephemeral organizations in extreme environments: Emergence, strategy, extinction”, Journal of Management Studies, vol. 20, n. l, pp. 73-95.
LAPORTE T.R., CONSOLINI P.M. (1991), “Working in Practice but Not in Theory: Theoretical Challenges of High-Reliability Organizations”, Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, vol. 1, n. 1, pp. 19-48.
LEVITT B., MARCH J.G. (1988), “Organizational Learning”, Annual Review of Sociology, vol. 14, pp. 319-338.
LYLES M.A., MITROFF I.I. (1980), “Organizational problem formulation: an empirical study”, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 25, n. 1, pp. 102-119.
MARCH J.G., SIMON H.A. (1958), Organizations, Blackwell Publishers, Cambridge, MA.
MARCH J.G., SPROULL L.S., TAMUZ M. (1991), “Learning from samples of one or fewer”, Organization Science, vol. 2, n. 1, pp. 1-13.
MARCUS A.A., NICHOLS M.L. (1999), “On the edge: Heeding the warning of unusual events”, Organization Science, vol. 10, n. 4, pp. 482-499.
MINTZBERG H., RAISINGHANI D., THÉORÊT A. (1976), “The structure of “unstructured” decision processes”, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 21, pp. 246-275.
MORRIS M., MOORE P. (2000), “The Lessons We (Don’t) Learn: Counterfactual Thinking and Organizational Accountability after a Close Call”, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 45, n. 5, pp. 737-765.
NARDUZZO A., WARGLIEN M. (1998), “Le routine come competenze organizzative”, in Lipparini A. (a cura di), Competenze organizzative. Sviluppo, condivisione, trasferimento, Carocci, Roma.
NEWELL A., SIMON H.A (1972), Human Problem solving, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.
NELSON R.R., WINTER S.G. (1982), An evolutionary theory of economic change, Harvard University Press. Cambridge.
OCASIO W. (1997), “Towards an attention-based view of the firm”, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 18, n. S1, pp. 187-206.
OLIVER D., ROOS J. (2003), “Dealing with the unexpected: Critical incidents in the LEGO Mindstorms team”, Human Relations, vol. 56, n. 9, pp. 1057-1082.
PERROW C. (1999), Normal Accidents: living with high-risk technologies, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
PERSICO F. (2014), “La gestione di un evento estremo come processo dinamico di coordinamento organizzativo”, Studi Organizzativi, n. 2, pp. 9-41.
PINA e CUNHA M., CLEGG S.R., KAMOCHE K. (2006), “Surprises in Management and Organization: Concept, Sources and A Typology”, British Journal of Management, vol. 17, n. 4, pp. 317-329.
QUARANTELLI E.L. (1988), “Disaster Crisis Management: A Summary of Research Findings”, Journal of Management Studies, vol. 25, n. 4, pp. 373-385.
QUARANTELLI E.L., LAGADEC P., BOIN A. (2006), “A Heuristic Approach to Future Disasters and Crises: New, Old and In-Between Types”, in Rodriguez H., Quarantelli H., Dynes R. (a cura di), Handbook of Disaster Research, Springer, pp. 16-41.
RAMANUJAM R. (2003), “The effects of discontinuous change on latent errors in organizations: The moderating role of risk”, Academy of Management Journal, vol. 46, n. 5, pp. 608-617.
RERUP C. (2009), “Attentional triangulation: Learning from unexpected rare crises”, Organization Science, vol. 20, n. 5, pp. 876-893.
RUDOLPH J.W., REPENNING N.P. (2002), “Disaster Dynamics: Understanding the Role of Quantity in Organizational Collapse”, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 47, n. 1, pp. 1-30, doi:10.2307/3094889.
SCHÖN D. (1983), The Reflective Practitioner. How Professionals Think in Action, Temple Smith, London, UK.
SHACKLE G.L.S. (1979), Imagination and the Nature of Choice, Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh, Ireland.
SEIDL D. (2004), “The Concept of Weak Signals Revisited: A Re-Description from a Constructivist Perspective”, in Tsoukas H., Shepherd J. (a cura di), Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy, Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 151-168.
SHEAFFER Z., RICHARDSON B., ROSENBLATT Z. (1998), Early-warning-signals management: A lesson from the Barings crisis, vol. 6, n. 1, pp. 1-22.
SIMON H.A. (1947), Administrative behavior, The Free Press, New York, NY.
SIMON H.A. (1955), “A behavioral model of rational choice”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 69, n. 1, pp. 99-118.
SMITH G. (1989), “Defining Managerial Problems: A Framework for Prescriptive Theorizing”, Management Science, vol. 35, n. 8, pp. 963-981.
STARBUCK W.H. (1983), “Organizations As Action Generators”, American Sociological Review, vol. 48, n. 1, pp. 91-102.
SUCHMAN L.A. (1987), Plans and situated actions: The problem of human-machine communications, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK.
TALEB N. (2007), The Black swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, New York NY.
TAMUZ M. (2004), “Understanding accident precursors”, in Bier V.M., Kunreuther H., Phimister J.R. (a cura di), Accident precursor analysis and management: reducing technological risk through diligence, National Academies Press, Washington DC.
TIERNEY K.J., LINDELL M.K., PERRY R.W. (2001) Facing the unexpected: disaster preparedness and response in the United States, Joseph Henry Press, Washington DC.
THOMPSON K.D. (1967), Organization in Action, Mc Graw Hill, New York.
TRAINOR J.E. (2004), Searching For a System: Multi-Organizational Coordination in the September 11th World Trade Center Search and Rescue Response. Public Entity Risk Institute, University of Delaware, Disaster Research Center Preliminary Paper #343.
TRIPSAS M., GAVETTI G. (2000), “Capabilities, Cognition, and Inertia: Evidence from Digital Imaging”, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 21, n. 10-11, pp. 1147-1161.
TURNER B.A. (1976), “The organizational and inter-organizational development of disasters”, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 21, n. 3, pp. 378-397.
TURNER B.A, PIDGEON N. (1997), Man-Made disasters, Butterworth-Heinemann.
VAUGHAN D. (1996), The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA, University Press, Chicago.
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2016-04-28
